Andrius Kubilius assumed office as the EU Commissioner for Defence and Space on the 1st of December 2024. He started working on the White Paper on the Future of European Defence in late 2024, getting this task from Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen, who prioritized it within the first 100 days of her second term. Kubilius is a key driving force in this effort. He is a strong proponent of the formation of new approaches to defence and identifying investment needs relevant in shaping Europe’s security strategy.
Context and Need for Change
Before Kubilius’s involvement, Europe had already updated the European Defence Industrial Strategy, which showed promising results but lacked the scope for the ambitious, large-scale changes needed today, especially given Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. Kubilius’s mission is to reinforce ongoing efforts, create a comprehensive framework to address current and future threats and ensure Europe’s self-reliance and coherence.
Goals and Vision
Kubilius’s objectives focus on, but are not limited to the following key areas: scaling up defence initiatives to unprecedented levels, strengthening military mobility through removing existing barriers, and creation of the Single Market for Defence products and services. He aims to increase defence investment, improve expenses, limit Europe’s supply chain dependence on external actors and prioritize European industries, fostering a close collaboration with Ukraine through gradual integration of its Defence Industries into the European market family. The importance of the entrepreneurial spirit of young and dynamic Ukrainian companies, which have battlefield-proven experience and can provide an important impetus to Europe's competitiveness and strengthen European defense capabilities, is particularly noted.
Ukraine in White Paper Strategic Vision
The white paper’s assessment of Ukraine’s role in shaping European security architecture is critical. It explores how the country in war can actively participate in European defence processes, offer opportunities for the EU, and strengthen the Eastern Partnership, aligning with Kubilius’s vision. Team WBU in consultations with the other stakeholders have contributed to the White Paper with recommendations, mainly focusing on the spheres where joint EU / Ukrainian cooperation can play most of the mutual benefit.
In the endstate, the White Paper emphasises that Ukraine’s defence industry is vibrant and innovative, backed by battle-proven experience. However, it still remains reliant on Europe to scale up and access advanced technologies requiring multinational collaboration. Supporting Ukraine is framed as a vital step towards formation of the European Defence Union. The latter contributes to the enhancement of the collective European defence through integration of Ukraine's Defence Industries into the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB) via European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) and the Ukraine Support Instrument (USI). In short, Ukraine is seen as a technological innovator whose integration can boost EDTIB’s agility and cost-efficiency, with the EU Defence Innovation Office in Kyiv as a cooperation platform.
Financing Options
The White Paper suggests several financing mechanisms relevant to supporting Ukraine's defence efforts and its integration into the European defence framework. That includes:
In sum, the White Paper on the Future of European Defence positions Ukraine as a critical partner. The path to the Defence Union propounded by Commissioner Kubilius is seen as closely interconnected with Ukraine’s integration supported by relevant financing options underscoring its strategic importance in Europe’s defence future.
Note: WBU has prepared a more detailed analysis of the White Paper and its cohesion with Ukraine's context which can be found below.
Analysis of Ukraine’s Role Highlighted in the EU White Paper on the Future of European Defence
Explicit Mentions of Ukraine
Introduction (Page 1)
Context: Ukraine is central to Europe’s security crisis, with Russia’s invasion in February 2022 shattering international norms. The war is described as the "most central and consequential crisis for Europe's future," with Ukraine’s security tied to the EU’s own. Supporting Ukraine is framed as both a moral and self-interested imperative to deter Russian aggression.
Assumption: Ukraine is positioned as a frontline partner whose defense directly impacts EU stability, suggesting a strategic need for collaboration beyond mere aid.
Strategic Context (Pages 2-3)
Context: Russia’s war against Ukraine is highlighted as the return of high-intensity conventional war to Europe, with ongoing threats even post-ceasefire due to Russia’s war economy and alliances (e.g., China, Iran). Ukraine’s resilience is implicitly critical to countering this threat.
Assumption: Ukraine’s battlefield experience and proximity to Russia make it a key case study and partner for understanding and countering hybrid and conventional threats.
Rearming Europe - Increased Military Support for Ukraine (Pages 4-6)
Context: Ukraine is a priority for EU military support, with €50 billion provided since 2022, though deemed insufficient. Specific priorities include:
Supplying 1.5 million rounds of artillery ammunition in 2025.
Providing air defense systems, deep-strike missiles, and drones via initiatives like the ‘Air Defence Initiative.’
Training and equipping Ukrainian forces through EUMAM Ukraine.
Direct support to Ukraine’s defense industry (capacity estimated at €35 billion in 2025, with €17-18 billion unused), including procurement orders and windfall profits/G7 ERA loans.
Enhancing military mobility corridors into Ukraine and access to EU space assets (e.g., Galileo, Copernicus).
Assumption: Ukraine is not just a recipient but a potential industrial contributor, with its defense industry seen as a scalable asset for EU needs, implying deep industrial and operational integration.
Associate Ukraine to EU Initiatives (Page 6)
Context: Ukraine is invited to share defense priorities, participate in EDA activities (e.g., Hub for EU Defence Innovation), PESCO projects, and CARD collaborative opportunities, transferring high-intensity warfare lessons to the EU.
Assumption: Ukraine’s operational expertise is valued as a resource for shaping EU capability development, suggesting a two-way partnership.
Integrate Ukrainian Defence Industry (Pages 6-7)
Context: Ukraine’s innovative defense industry (e.g., AI, drones) is praised for its adaptability and frontline-driven upgrades. Integration into the European Defence Technological Industrial Base (EDTIB) via the European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) and the Ukraine Support Instrument (USI) is proposed to modernize Ukraine and enhance EU competitiveness.
Assumption: Ukraine is seen as a technological innovator whose integration can boost EDTIB’s agility and cost-efficiency, with the EU Defence Innovation Office in Kyiv as a collaboration hub.
Way Forward (Page 19)
Context: Ukraine’s continued military support is emphasized as essential for its defense and future deterrence, aligning with the EU’s broader defense leap forward.
Assumption: Ukraine’s role extends beyond the current war, positioning it as a long-term partner in EU defense strategy.
Implicit Connections
Capability Gaps (Pages 7-8): Areas like air/missile defense, drones, and ammunition align with Ukraine’s needs and expertise, suggesting implicit cooperation potential.
Funding Options (Pages 15-17): REARM and EDIP funding could indirectly support Ukraine’s industry, especially via collaborative procurement.
Single Market for Defence (Pages 12-13): Ukraine’s integration into EDTIB implies inclusion in a unified market, enhancing cross-border industrial ties.
Innovation and Skills (Pages 13-14): Ukraine’s drone/AI advancements and skilled workforce could contribute to EU innovation goals.
Assumptions About Ukraine’s Role
Strategic Partner: Ukraine is both a security buffer and a contributor, not just a beneficiary, due to its proximity to Russia and wartime innovations.
Industrial Asset: Its defense industry’s scalability and adaptability position it as a cost-effective partner for EU production needs.
Knowledge Hub: Ukraine’s frontline experience offers unique lessons for EU capability development and innovation.
Long-Term Ally: Post-war deterrence and reconstruction suggest a sustained partnership beyond immediate conflict.
Fields of Potential Cooperation
1. Military Support and Capability Sharing
Context: The EU prioritizes arming Ukraine with ammunition, air defense, and drones, while Ukraine’s battlefield needs align with EU capability gaps (Pages 4-8).
Strength: Ukraine’s real-world testing of systems (e.g., drones) complements EU’s advanced R&D, enhancing joint capabilities.
Potential Scope: Co-develop and procure air defense systems, drones, and artillery, with Ukraine sharing operational feedback.
2. Defence Industry Integration
Context: Ukraine’s innovative industry (e.g., €35 billion capacity) is targeted for EDTIB integration via EDIP/USI (Pages 6-7).
Strength: Ukraine’s agility and EU’s scale create a synergy for cost-efficient production and modernization.
Potential Scope: Establish joint ventures for drone/AI production, scale Ukraine’s capacity with EU funding, and expand the Kyiv Defence Innovation Office.
3. Technology Transfer and Innovation
Context: Ukraine’s frontline-driven tech (e.g., AI, drones) can inform EU innovation, while EU offers advanced systems (Pages 6, 13-14).
Strength: Ukraine’s practical expertise pairs with EU’s technological infrastructure for mutual advancement.
Potential Scope: Transfer Ukrainian drone tech to EU firms, co-develop AI/quantum solutions, and integrate Ukraine into EDF projects.
4. Supply Chain and Military Mobility
Context: Both face supply chain vulnerabilities; EU plans mobility corridors into Ukraine (Pages 5, 14-15).
Strength: Ukraine’s logistics experience under war conditions enhances EU’s mobility planning.
Potential Scope: Jointly secure supply chains for critical materials (e.g., chips), extend EU corridors to Ukraine, and procure dual-use transport assets.
5. Sanctions and Geopolitical Strategy
Context: Russia’s war economy threatens both; EU seeks to counter hybrid threats (Pages 3, 17-18).
Strength: Ukraine’s insights into Russian tactics bolster EU sanction effectiveness and hybrid defense.
Potential Scope: Coordinate sanctions targeting Russia’s defense sector, develop joint cyber/space defenses, and counter-propaganda.
6. Human Capital and Skills Development
Context: Both need skilled personnel; Ukraine offers expertise, EU offers training resources (Pages 14, 19).
Strength: Ukraine’s workforce and EU’s STEM programs can mutually enhance talent pools.
Potential Scope: Create joint training hubs, integrate Ukrainian SMEs into EU projects, and upskill for emerging tech (e.g., cybersecurity).
Conclusion
As of the White Paper, Ukraine is prominently featured as a critical partner, with explicit cooperation outlined in military support, industry integration, and capability development. Implicitly, Ukraine's expertise and needs align with EU goals in innovation, supply chains, and deterrence. Potential cooperation spans operational, industrial, technological, logistical, geopolitical, and human capital domains, leveraging Ukraine’s wartime strengths and the EU’s strategic resources for mutual benefit.