According to preliminary estimates, investments in potential transport projects that can be realistically implemented within the five years following a ceasefire amount to approximately $40 billion. Moreover, there are already some resources available to initiate certain projects now, reported the co-founder of the We Build Ukraine analytical center during the "Logistics as a Driver of Economic Growth" conference.
These resources include state and local budgets, as well as funds from international financial organizations in the form of loans and grants, explained Yurchenko. Additionally, financing can be sourced through public-private partnerships and concession agreements, particularly in the management of seaports and airports. Certain public-private partnership projects in road construction and maintenance could also receive support from the state budget.
“A significant boost in this area would come from the reinstatement of the State Road Fund as a special budget fund, which could directly finance these projects or serve as a guarantee for repaying possible loans attracted from international financial organizations or after the stabilization of financial markets,” noted Yurchenko.
Therefore, she emphasized, now is the best time to develop strategies and programs in this field and initiate expert discussions. Reforms are also crucial, particularly the reform of Ukrzaliznytsia (Ukrainian Railways), which is not only a European integration obligation but also an opportunity for the company itself.
“At present, Ukrzaliznytsia operates in conditions where it is practically impossible to structure or implement new projects—its financial position does not allow it to engage in new projects with international financial organizations or to structure investments,” stressed Anna Yurchenko.
According to Andriy Tsokol, Deputy Director for Sustainable Infrastructure at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), financing and investing in transport and infrastructure assets have their own specifics. These assets are generally high-cost and require a long-term focus, meaning the need for long-term predictability of cash flows they generate.
Tsokol explained that for financing such assets, Blended Financing is often used, as their profitability is not the highest, but they offer predictability, making this instrument highly suitable.
“Another key feature of the transport sector is its interconnectedness. If we consider building a port terminal, we must analyze not only the terminal itself but also access roads, cargo flows, export and import directions, trade routes, alternative logistics channels, and associated costs, as logistics flows can shift if a more cost-effective alternative appears,” emphasized Andriy Tsokol.
At the same time, he highlighted several key aspects that must be considered when financing the restoration of Ukraine's infrastructure and new transport logistics projects. First and foremost, there is a need for coordination between public and private investments.
It is essential that state projects also take into account private investment projects that can be involved and have a high likelihood of implementation. This is particularly relevant for the port and road sectors, as roads connect industrial, business, and logistics facilities, making coordination crucial for railways as well.
“It is now widely accepted that Ukraine's transportation and infrastructure restoration and development needs are so vast that relying solely on public capital is not feasible. As we know, the state is not always an effective owner, but in some cases, such as strategic infrastructure, public ownership is justified. However, wherever possible and where investors are willing, private investments must be encouraged,” emphasized Andriy Tsokol.
He also pointed out the necessity of combining different sources of subsidized financing with commercial financing. Some sectors—especially those with a strong social orientation—require Blended Financing. This is particularly important for the restoration of de-occupied territories and regions near the front line, where commercial attractiveness is limited and investor engagement is challenging due to higher risks.
Tsokol mentioned that in 2024, the EBRD signed its largest project with the NOVA Group, with which it has been cooperating since 2018, amounting to €70 million. This project specifically utilizes the Blended Financing instrument, as EU guarantees enabled financing without collateral, which is quite unusual.
Olena Voloshyna, Head of the International Finance Corporation (IFC) in Ukraine, stated that IFC also uses Blended Financing, which has proven to be an effective tool for continuing to finance the Ukrainian economy during wartime. Since the full-scale invasion, IFC has invested $2.2 billion in Ukraine’s economy, of which $1.4 billion came from its own funds and $760 million was mobilized from financial markets.
“Unfortunately, we have few investments in the transport sector because, as colleagues mentioned, these projects are long-term. We jointly financed the preparation of projects in Chornomorsk Port and were eager to finance concession projects in Kherson and Olvia, but the war disrupted our plans,” Voloshyna noted.
She added that the organization is now focused on public-private partnership projects, continuing work on two additional port concessions. Despite the ongoing war, there remains strong interest in these concessions.
“But we would also like this tool to extend beyond the port sector. We see potential applications in airports,” Voloshyna emphasized.
In turn, Vyacheslav Klymov, co-founder of NOVA (Nova Poshta), stated that the company currently has four main sources of financing. First, NOVA believes that the primary source of investment for private businesses should be their own profits. Thus, the company reinvests about 80-85% of its earnings. Second, major infrastructure projects cannot be undertaken alone, so NOVA attracts financing from international financial institutions, including the EBRD.
The third source of financing is Ukrainian banks, which have proven to be reliable partners during the war for businesses like NOVA. The fourth source is corporate bonds.
“Two companies in our group issue corporate bonds—both Nova Poshta Ukraine and NovaPay, our financial company. Nova Poshta Ukraine issues private placements that banks purchase immediately, while NovaPay issues public bonds. These can be bought via the mobile app, making it a new experience for us in attracting funds,” explained Klymov.
He noted that over three years of war, the company has accelerated parcel delivery, expanded its network, and continues to grow. NOVA now operates 128 branches in 16 countries. The past three years have been both a period of devastating war and active development.
According to Tomas Fiala, CEO of Dragon Capital, the company initially paused new projects after the full-scale invasion, refraining from acquiring new assets during the first year. However, by the summer of 2022, Dragon Capital began gradually resuming pre-war projects. Currently, 80% of the company's credit portfolio at the beginning of the war has been repaid, and they have not used borrowed funds.
“War makes macroeconomic predictability difficult. But since mid-2023, we have started considering new investments. For 2025, we plan to invest $100 million in new projects, primarily funded by our own capital and shareholder contributions,” Fiala stated.
He also noted that 2025 is the first year since the war began when macroeconomic predictability has improved significantly, with secured agreements to finance the budget deficit.
“Many are watching the ceasefire negotiations, but a key ‘barometer’ is the price of Ukrainian Eurobonds traded in London. These reflect the risk assessments of dozens of international investors. While bond prices have been rising for the past two years, the increase accelerated around October last year,” Fiala pointed out.
He explained that new investors assess Ukrainian risk through sovereign Eurobonds, expecting a yield of 13–14% per annum, which is the rate at which they are willing to buy Ukrainian government debt.